After many promising cells (I counted chasing 4 or 5 65-dbz storms), I got hailed on 7 times, video to come later. Tornado wise, today was a letdown. I did not see well-developed wall clouds. All the rotation was on the scale of the whole thunderstorm with lots of unorganized turbulence producing funnels everywhere. Like I told Dan, who helped me catch the cell near Trenton, NE around 5-6pm, the report of a tornado looks to be an error because there were very low-lying clouds associated with the warm front the kept moving north/south after interaction with the passing cells.
Why the lack of tornadoes today? I would say instability. I measured low 60's over low 50's even south of the warm front, which was probably amounting to a few 100 worth of CAPE.
Still debating whether to head out Saturday. Looks like the show will be mostly after sunset. Anyone agree or disagree?
I agree partially, but think you are missing a key point. I made up a figure real quick which I can't seem to add to this comment so will post real quick and add details.
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