Saturday, April 14, 2012

Why Nebraska?

All of these ingredients will conveniently find themselves in a single location tomorrow afternoon...

  • Nose of upper level jet
  • strong diffluence 
  • strong curvature from downstream ridge amplification over the course of the last 18 hours
  • More than sufficient instability
  • synoptic flow will keep morning warm frontal convection cirrus and debris from hampering afternoon destabilization
  • Strong cyclogenesis
  • bulging dryline and cold front
  • pressure falls in region (Dima I know you like that parameter)
  • Excellent vertical speed shear (ie bulk shear)
  • lowest 1.5 km speed shear of 30 knots
  • SSE wind at surface and SW at 850 (ie helicity)
  • further enhanced shear from LLJ hour or two before sunset when storms are still coupled with BL
And this...

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