Another interesting note about the past event is to realize how impressive our technology has become ... For example, CIMMS Convective-initiation product (a real-time algorithm to sense for when boundary layer cumulus have reached the level of free convection) is now able to provide 15 to 20 minute lead times before a cell even shows up on radar.
Check it out here
Also, speaking of better technology, I've attached my 2 favorite images from Wednesday, and I'll admit that to get them, I actually took a picture of my TV as Greg Forbes was playing with his GRLevel 3 radar while I was eating dinner. Anyways, here they are: the first is the supercell that passed through Tuscaloosa and the second is a cross-section of that same cell that shows the core of the tornado as it extends well above the cloud base.
To finish up, I wanted to mention that we may be going into a prolonged lull for widespread severe weather. Even though I know long-range forecasts for severe weather are extremely risky business, ensembles have been showing the development of an Omega block with the axis of higher heights just east of the Rockies. The models have some skill at predicting blocks which is why I think we won't see a tornado west of the Mississippi river until ~May 15th or so ... Go ahead and start grilling me.
Here's an image from this morning's GFS ensembles. The contours show mean 500mb heights, the colors are the spread amongst the ensembles. Note that minimum in spread where many of the ensembles have a cut-off, blocking ridge, with two cutoff lows to the southeast and southwest.
Dude, I love that radar image with the debris ball (unfortunately we all know what that means when we see one). I saved a bunch of radar data from that cell as it managed to keep together for nearly 5 hrs. It produced the that tornado back in MS and traveled all the way into GA some people are saying. We'll have to see how the NWS officially lists it. It definitely was an EF-4 in Tuscaloosa and SW Birmingham.
ReplyDeleteAs far as the next two to three weeks, I am ok with a hiatus with the severe weather. Our nation needs to rebuild after this month's devastation. Like it was originally stated the media is having a field day with this April and all the big guns are adding their input.
For now Omega Block me please!
Just as long as that omega block lifts by the end of May when I have some vacation days scheduled - specifically for chasing, then I'm ok with a temporary lull.
ReplyDeleteYes, as long as the omega block lifts by the end of May for chasing class! I still haven't seen a tornado in person and this might be my best chance to see one :) But hopefully we don't see one of those debris ball tornadoes - I think we've all seen enough of those this past week, from St. Louis to Tuscaloosa to Birmingham, we've seen enough damage to last for a loooong time...
ReplyDeleteI'm all for a omega block ! To those who haven't seen one, and those on vacation looking to chase them... I hope y'all find them, but I pray you find them in a open field away from people and homes !
ReplyDeleteOf course I'd much rather see one in an open field! I absolutely hate seeing the death and destruction that has come with some of these storms. I'm hoping for a shift to the more traditional Great Plains severe weather for our time chasing. Less population out there, and much easier to chase too.
ReplyDeleteI agree, I wasn't meaning you like death and destruction :( I'm sorry if it sounded that way.
ReplyDeleteNo, I know you didn't mean it like that haha. No worries! :)
ReplyDeleteLatest stats from April 27 outbreak, 259 preliminary tornadoes, 2 EF-5 confirmed and 20 EF-3 or stronger tornadoes.
ReplyDelete453: preliminary April tornado count before last Wednesday's outbreak
163: average number of USA tornadoes in April.
322: average number of USA tornadoes in May.
I hope this block lasts right up until May 11th or so, and then all the fun comes back once classes are out!
ReplyDeleteAs someone who gets really excited by infinitesimal probabilities of potential chase days, I'll throw in an optimistic voice on the chasing outlook. I do like the fact there exists some GFS solutions with some hopeful opportunities, although it's a low probability chance they'll even be in the right ball park, as the above analysis by chillwx soundly demonstrates. For example, several GFS runs are showing at least a marginal chasing event this upcoming weekend, as a relatively small amplitude disturbance rolls through the plains and into the midwest, but even if that verifies, the low-level shear, moisture, and capping may provide some marginal conditions. But I really like the far less certain forecast for Tues-Weds (May 10-11) in the 18 Z GFS, with a trough coming into the west/plains, with much better quality moisture, and slightly better shear. Not surprisingly, run-to-run consistency has been poor that far out, but if something like that came together, that cause some vacation days for me. At any rate, the odds are still somewhat grim ...
ReplyDeleteCheers,
Chris R.