We have decided to make our play for this afternoon, and opted for the southern most area (highlighted per our prevoius post). Reasons for this:
1) models under-estimated the amount of instability in the area along the dryline - mixed layer capes around 4-5k everywhere up and down the dryline.
2) Convective mode - seems to be less-discrete cell oriented towards the northern Go Zone, probably due to the enhanced stationary-frontal forcing in that vicinity.
3) If it blows up into a squall-line of rotating supercells, we want to be on the southern-most bit of convection.
We plan to cross the Red River ~18z (near Wichita Falls) and hang out around the vicinity of Vernon, Texas. Should be there by 19z... in time for initiation.
Update to follow this evening, post-chase. Happy chasing!
-Triple Point
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