Hello blog posters and followers!
First off - sorry for the non-professional mspaint-edited photos...
Here's the DL - myself and Keith are flying into Tulsa, OK on Sunday night, and plan on dryline chasing on Monday and Tuesday in the Oklahoma / Texas / Kansas region. After taking a look at 12z and 00z models for today, here's what we have found...
Monday:
Upper level dynamics - not looking like a 'hell yes' situation, but good enough for supporting surface based convection in the western oklahoma region, or northwest texas. Skipping through all the traditional in-depth analysis, which we all know everyone on this blog is capable of... here is the EHI map for Monday evening (00z) in that region:
We highlight two dryline bulges right off the bat - one in northwest Oklahoma, and one in northwest Tay-has. To accompany this - here's a forecast sounding for the southern-most bulge (21z) ...
Aside from the super-adiabatic lapse rates at the surface, this southern most area is what we are leaning towards right now for our day on Monday. Of course, that could all change, but at this time it looks like about equally good upper level support for the entire region on Monday evening, but much better moisture return in the Wichita Falls vicinity, reaching slightly higher instability and just as good lower level directional shear profiles. Either way, we could end up in both of those highlight areas on Monday pending further model analysis. Should support supercell storms easily, with chaseable storm vectors.Tuesday:
Dryline advances East. The actual dryline becomes 'muddy' overnight and into the early morning on Tuesday due to the forecast surface circulation, which wraps the moisture around the backside of the feature. However, during the afternoon the dryline looks to become more distinct as the developing surface low pulls dry air in behind it and acts to punch the dryline / dryslot in the northeast direction. Here, we focus on one location - near Enid, OK. The low level helicity is enhanced by the surface low, warm front, and advancing dryline. This looks like a non-traditional dryline bulge, but indeed is in the triple point area of the entire system for Tuesday.
Pictured: 18z sfc dewpoints.
Which evolves to this by 00z Wednesday:
Along with this, here's a forecast sounding for 00z just southwest of Enid, OK. Right in the middle of the highlighted circle on the above image...
To summarize: Go-Zones... Monday - either Northwest Oklahoma, or Northwest Texas (definitely leaning towards Texas play as of right now). Tuesday - Central Oklahoma.
Haha... Of course, if we sound like fools... please, somebody, anybody... say something!
But in all seriousness, if anyone has other thoughts on these two days, let me know. Hope to see other people out there as well... 608-448-1766 if you're looking to reach us either day. Hooray for chase-cations! As always, I appreciated both Dan and Croix's opinions on this preliminary forecast yesterday while we were deciding on booking our flights ;)
I will be available for base support Tuesday for how ever long is really needed...Monday I'll be tied up most of the day. Also, sounds like a group for the chase class is headed down to that area, or at least there is a real possibility of people going.
ReplyDeleteI will be around for base support on Monday afternoon after 3-4pm (when I get done with work, :)). Thinking you guys will be right on the money for Monday. Tuesday and Wed. will become more guaranteed as we get closer. Convection may shake up the setup a bit for the subsequant days, but as long as your near the dryline and developed surface quasi stationary front, you'll be good to go. I will probably see you guys down there on Tuesday.
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