Two things team:
1) It has been a fairly active morning in west-central Florida this morning. A nice MCS fueled by a nighttime LLJ and eastern moving cold front has produced a tornado or two (actually spotted, but also reported "numerous" times according to SPC's storm report page), along with other wind reports. Unfortunately, Florida is a crappy chase state, but hey...it's something to talk about this morning!
2) While this is only one severe weather index, it got me excited for some Sunday Evening Severe Weather (note: from twisterdata.com 12Z NAM 31 Mar 2011):
Also, here's a 12 Z NAM Mar 31 2011 sounding from Kansas City, MO (update of Chris's post, but with NAM instead since it's what I was looking at when writing this post, and GFS 12 Z wasn't done updating yet; also from Twister Data):
Also, can the storm track please shift north soon so that chasing can come closer to Madison, WI?
Helicity
Zach,
ReplyDeleteLove that you are engaged in the Severe Weather Season, keep the itch, you as well Manzeck as the wave train looks very progressive and interesting for the next few weeks. I have my doubts about this first system this weekend (Sunday, Monday, Tuesday). Sure there will undoubtedly be Severe weather especially along the dryline and then eventually as the system pushes across the ohio river valley, but outbreaks are a different story. Nothing in the upper level pattern for the first system is saying, "hell yes outbreak time". There is a well defined upper level trough and assoicated vort max that will accompany the first system but timing/location/ and axis orientation look more ho-hum. That being said, the long range gfs (00z and 12z)for the end of the week is showing a nasty negatively tilted system to eject over the central/southern plains by the end of next week. We'll see if any of that comes to fruition. If so, you guys should plan on chasing next weekend. At this point though pipe dreams...For the record I hope that I end up being totally wrong for the end of this weekend. Chasing would be as always, "Sexy"
Finally, on the storm track shifting north...I don't think you really want it shifting too far north yet. Typically those types of situations this early in the year involve low topped super cells that chase you instead you doing the chasing. No real vegetation yet, not enough daylight, not a good climatology, and tough to get those juicy dewpoints up there. Climo puts the bullseye for this time of year along the dryline in Texas and the northern Gulf states into Southern Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. By mid April that will shift into Southern/Central Plains and Mid Mississippi river valley. The midwest's time will come later this year, but until then be prepared to drive mi amigo!
Everyone,
ReplyDeleteIf you would like to look more in depth on where and when tornadoes occur during different times of the year check out this fun tool SPC has
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot.php
Dan,
ReplyDeleteFrom a non-storm chasing standpoint, is it okay to wish for a shift of the track north just for average high temperatures again? lol
NEVER!!!! You must remain in cold and isolation until Mid-May!!! Those are the rules you agreed to by going to school in Madison, lol j/k.
ReplyDeleteAt least it's been a pretty mild late Winter/early Spring for you guys, as you look to be past the really cold stuff. Low 50's for the next few days looks pretty nice. This way you can head down to Bascom Hill and check out all of the pasty white ladies getting their first tans on, lol.
Haha, I'm definitely up for some warmer temps already. One day of 60 was too much of a tease. For the most part, I agree that an 'outbreak' late this weekend and early next week is a pipedream at this point. However, I'm going to be in Victoria, TX Mon-Fri next week anyway, plenty far away from any potential action.
ReplyDeleteOh and Dan - you know you miss Bascom Hill...
I saw that low on the GFS for next weekend too. I know it's a little too far out right now to get too excited about it, but it is looking pretty "sexy" right now, and the last few runs have been fairly consistent. It'll definitely be interesting to watch, maybe chase if everything comes together?
ReplyDelete